'Batman V Superman' Box Office: 'Dawn Of Justice Opens With 'Mere' $166M Weekend

Warner Bros.

As most of you know, the initial weekend box office estimates are just that. They contain hard Friday figures, somewhat confirmed Saturday figures, and an educated guestimate about the Sunday figure. And they are usually relatively accurate within a margin of error. Sometimes a buzzy film ends up posting a bigger Sunday than expected, such as Batman Begins, The Dark Knight, Iron Man, Star Trek, or Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Sometimes a much-hyped film ends up being more frontloaded than expected. Sadly, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is the latter example.
Warner Bros./Time Warner TWX +3.91% Inc. got a day’s full of headlines trumpeting a $170.1 million debut, but in truth that Fri-Sun figure is now $166.1 million. That’s how this works, there’s no conspiracy, but that is a lower-than-estimated opening weekend. So riddle me this, Batman: When is a $166.1 million debut not entirely cause for unmitigated celebration?  Answer: When it is started by an $81.59m Friday, and it’s $4m less than the original estimate.
Concerning pure weekend numbers, that’s the biggest opening weekend of 2016 thus far and the 8^th largest opening of all time. It sits just ahead of The Dark Knight Rises ($160 million) and behind only Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2 ($169m), Iron Man 3 ($174m), Avengers: Age of Ultron ($191m), The Avengers ($207m), Jurassic World ($208m), and Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247m).
So that’s good, right?  Well, mostly. In short, I’d be a lot more confident about this film’s long-term prospects if we were talking a $166.1 million debut off of a $71.59m Friday instead of an $81.59m Friday.
The film pulled in the sixth-biggest Friday of all time ($81.59 million), the ninth-biggest Saturday ($50.69m), and the 22nd-biggest Sunday ($33.8m). So, while America clearly has an interest in seeing a Batman/Superman movie, did they want to see this particular Batman/Superman movie once word-of-mouth kicked in? That’s where the numbers give me pause.

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Here’s a terrifying stat: Dawn of Justice made less on its first Sunday than Man of Steel did ($36.2 million) despite a 45% larger Friday ($81m vs $56m). Yes, that Sunday in June of 2013 was Father’s Day, but that’s still not a promising development.
The film played 62% male and 60% over 25-years-old. Regarding CinemaScore, it earned a B- from men and a B from women. It earned an A- from under-18 audiences (22%), a B+ from under-25 demos (40%), and a B- from those over-25 (60%). Here’s the rub, and something that is probably indicative of the audience polling: The film earned a mere 2.03x weekend multiplier. Even with the Easter holiday factored in, that’s not good.
Regarding prior Easter weekends, this one played less like Clash of the Titans or Furious 7 and more like The Hannah Montana Movie. That Walt Disney release opened with a $17.4m Friday and notched a $32.3m weekend (1.85x). For reference, Man of Steel pulled in a 2.28x weekend multiplier ($128m/$56m), Watchmen earned $55m from a $25m opening day (2.25x), Green Lantern notched a 2.48x multiplier ($53m/$21m), and The Dark Knight Rises notched a 2.12x multiplier ($160m/$75m).
This one played closer to the likes of The Twilight Saga: New Moon ($142m/$72m), Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part 2 ($169m/$91m), and um, Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($247.8m/$119.1m). Me thinks Star Wars 7 is going to become something of a Shrek 2 “exception that proves the rule” regarding box office patterns. Shrek 2 opened with just $20m over its Wed/Thurs debut and then earned another $108m over the Fri-Sun weekend, forever skewing projections for five-day weekends based on Wednesday grosses.

Now a lot of kids are off of school for Spring Break this week (which is why this was a plum release date), so we could see halfway decent legs in the immediate aftermath. Even if word of mouth is poor from general audiences (or at least heavily mixed), there is little-to-no competition for the first 14 days of release. God’s Not Dead is the only new wide release next week. The week after that sees Melissa McCarthy’s The Boss while the week after that sees Walt Disney’s The Jungle Book. The film’s fate will be set by the time The Huntsman: Winter’s War drops into theaters on April 22nd.
So, did this movie have a relatively small multiplier this weekend due to frontloaded interest, poor word-of-mouth, the Easter holiday, or some combination of all-of-the-above? If Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice performs like Watchmen, it gets to $322 million domestic. That’s the disastrous scenario, and one I’m not remotely comfortable predicting at this early juncture, as there are too many positive variables to be considered (competition, kids out of school, a continuing hold on the media, etc.) heading into the week.
A run like the Twilight sequels (around 2.05x) gets the film to $341 million, or below Deadpool‘s current $349m-and-counting total. And yes, that may not entirely fair, since if Deadpool had performed “as expected” ($65m Fri-Mon opening, $1700m domestic total), we wouldn’t be comparing the two, but c’est la vie.  Otherwise, the would-be “quick” runs from this respective sub-genre (Spider-Man 3, Green Lantern, Man of Steel, Fantastic Four) gets it from around $362m (2.18x) to around $377m (2.27x) domestic.
A 2.409x weekend-to-final multiplier would get it over the $400 million mark, which not entirely guaranteed. Audiences loved Furious 7 and that one only pulled a 2.4x weekend multiplier last year. A quick-kill run similar to  Iron Man 3 and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I (2.35x) gets the film to $391m, which is a solid $100m more than Man of Steel. That’s tough to complain about, especially in the short term. Avengers: Age of Ultron pulled a 2.4x multiplier last summer off a $191m debut, although I will contend that said Walt Disney DIS +1.01%/Marvel sequel was a more crowd-pleasing and family-friendly affair.

Quality judgments notwithstanding, Dawn of Justice is likely to be closer to Batman Returns than Batman Forever regarding general audience reception. $400 million is still possible, and you can get that Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc. will keep it in theaters for ages, Spectre-style if that is what is required in the end. The best case scenario is a run like The Dark Knight Rises. It would surprise me (how badly do we crave seven minutes of Wonder Woman?), but a 2.8x multiplier would get the film to $465m in America alone, which would be a monster win.
But come what may, whether or not the Ben Affleck/Henry Cavill/Gal Gadot film has any legs, whether or not it successfully sets up the would-be DC Extended Universe, there was clearly an interest in Batman, Superman, and Wonder Woman starring in the same film together. And provided Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman are somewhat more crowd-pleasing entertainments, I have little reason to believe why a lighter and slightly more superheroic Justice League can’t kick all kinds of box office butt come November 2017.