Traders work on the floor of the New York
Stock Exchange on February 11, 2016 in New York City. Stocks were down
for the fifth day in a row, buffeted in part by falling oil prices.
(Photo by Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images)
Volatile financial markets and geopolitical uncertainties are eroding confidence. The Fed might even cut interest rates this year, or at least hit the pause button in March following the December rate hike that sent Wall Street running like chickens with their heads cut off. Consumer confidence has fallen in developed economies. Japan and northern Europe have negative interest rates. Emerging markets are ugly ducklings.
Yet, despite that, guess which economies will drive global GDP again this year? Emerging markets, of course. The U.S. is going to grow over 2% despite recession fears. India and Indonesia are China-like, quietly growing over 7.5% and 5.4% respectively.
Here is where the growth is coming from this year, according to Barclays Capital. Numbers are for first and second quarter and full year as of Feb. 11, 2016.
Real GDP Forecasts (% over previous year)
1Q 2Q 2016
Advanced economies 2% 2.1% 1.8%
Emerging economies 4.6% 4.6% 4.2%
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Brazil -2% -1% -2.8%
Russia -0.2% 0.0% -1%
India 10.8% 9.2% 7.8%
China 6% 6% 6%
Euro zone 1.9% 1.8% 1.6%
U.K. 2.2% 1.8% 1.9%
Turkey 3.3% 3.3% 2.9%
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